Archive for April 15, 2019

RED CATEGORY


RED CATEGORY

 Police General Oscar Agbayalde (center) said two municipalities in La Union province are categorized as areas of grave concern (Category Red) this coming elections. He said that classifying towns as Category Red seeks to ensure preparations to reduce risk factors and to determine their needs that PNP could provide to attain an honest, peaceful and credible elections. Agbayalde met the local media after a command conference with the chiefs of police in Pangasinan and La Union held on Tuesday at the Police Regional Office I in San Fernando City, La Union. (PIA photo by rolanaoe).

April 15, 2019 at 8:54 am Leave a comment

ORTIGOZA: Surveys at Facebook, radio not credible


I was amused hearing two radio reporters of a premier radio station talking about two candidates for a higher office. These duo ingratiate with their favorite politicos because they have a 15 percent commission on the air time fee they exact from any one of them.

Reporter 1: Noong sinabi ko na hindi na kukuha si ____ ng air time napailing iyong P.R man ng kalaban. Sinabi niya sa akin: “Akala ko madami pera iyong kabilang partido. Naka prepara na ang missile namin, kwitis lang pala ang kaya”.

I blurted with a guffaw.

This radio station bills very expensively a buyer of its air time.

mortz-nw-colored32

***

A seasoned politiko who was with us said that despite the projects an elective public official had given to his constituents he should have wherewithal to buy votes because voters who belong to the C-D-E classes are apathetic about  the countless projects he gave but will vote for a candidate because of his money.

“I could afford to buy even with three waves for one thousand pesos for each of the voters,” he quipped.

He cited that a few days before the election he will test if the opponent could reciprocate his one thousand pesos.

“If my opponent could not do a financial tit –for-tat, I’ll forego the last two waves”.

Who said, son of a gun, that election is a cake walk? Winning it is not for the faint heart. One needs to spend tens if not hundreds of millions of pesos for a position that gives only a PhP100, 000 monthly pay and emoluments.

***

Many politicians and media practitioners mistook the surveys being done at Facebook or phone patches by radio anchormen about how many voters will vote for a certain bet and his opponent as “Gospel Truth”.

These surveys, that even senatorial bets PR crow publicly, are not credible.

How can you say your candidate for a particular elective position be it national or local wins when members of the popular social media founded and run by the group of Mark Zuckerberg did not represent the electorates?

Paano naman iyong mga farmers, jeepney drivers, and even those members of the millennial (22 to 37 years old) and the post-millennial (0 to 21 years old) who did not have Facebook account at their android mobile phones?

Besides, FB accounts can be manipulated by candidates who can commission people to make more fake accounts and join the survey.

Same too with those done by radio stations be it FM or AM.

The most credible polls to gauge the sentiment of the voters are those scientific surveys done by Rasmussen Reports and Gallup Polls in the U.S and the Social Weather Station and Pulse Asia in the Philippines.

There are provincial pollsters I know who cut their teeth on the trade by predicting the result of the election two weeks before the voters cast their ballots or the Commission of Election declared the winners.

That was what we called “credibility” of their craft.

“Paano naman maging accurate iyang SWS and Pulse Asia e 1,200 or 1, 500 respondents all over the country ang sample nila e almost 64 million ang voters?” I heard this common poser from skeptics.

“Paano mo naman masabi iyong isang kawang suman na niluluto ng dalawang mama’ ay mapakla o matamis e isang kutsara lang ang pinagsample mo na ginamit pang tikim?” my question to them, too.

Usually these pollsters use Random Sampling.

“With a total universe or sampling frame of 1,500 respondents of voting age as distributed on weighted averages on the target area. The poll was conducted on a Confidence Level of 98 percent on the overall design with an error margin of 2.8 percent on the overall landscape/level and 3-5 percentage points on the local application at the city/municipal level,” a pollster told me before.

***

Here’s my take to the other critics of some surveys that say Candidate A trail blazed Candidate B by miles because he paid millions of pesos the pollster who commissioned a survey for him.

“Kung si Candidate B ang nag commission niyan, siya ang nag trail blaze kay Bet A,” some usual response to those who did not understand or to those PR guys who want to pooh-pooh the “devastating” result that “chop” the head of their patron more than two months before the election.

I told them they were wrong. Pollster ask candidates to pay for the survey because the result will be their guide to re-strategize two months before the D-Day.

Kung kulelat, dagdagan ang ikot. Kung kelangan magpakawala ng milyon milyon piso sa ads dapat magpakawala, kung may pera pa matutong bumili ng mga leaders at boto to thwart the naked truth of the polls about the candidate, o kung kelangan pumunta sa Maynila at magsumbong ng mga alleged krimen at kuropsiyon sa national TV stations or sa Senado para may masisira at may gumuapo, dapat gawin, someone said.

“That’s plain stupidity to say kung kayo ang nagbayad kayo ang panalo. E paano naman ang kredibilidad ng pollster pag iyong result ng survey niya baliktad. Iyong nanalo sa polls niya iyon ang natalo e di apektado ang credibility ng racket niya. Sa next 2022 election wala ng magpapa survey sa kanya. Good bye iyong million pesos na kita niya,” I told some critics who did not know about this sampling marvel.

If the 1,200 or 1,500 respondents say of an exit poll did not represent the almost 64 million voters in the country, why all the presidential and senatorial bets SWS and Pulse Asia ranked in their result were the same in the actual counting of the Comelec?

Because, salamabit, there was an effing science on it!

The only exception as far as I remembered were names like Enrile (1995 election), Zubiri (2007 election), and others who were not part of the Magic 12 of these two famous poll outfits in the exit poll who came out victorious.

The ugly reason behind? Election counting then were done manually and the insidious from either of these candidates surreptitiously sneaked thousands of fake votes in their favor because of “Dagdag-Bawas” (add and subtract machination).

Now you got it?!

(You can read my selected columns at http://mortzortigoza.blogspot.com and articles at Pangasinan News Aro. You can send comments too at totomortz@yahoo.com)

 

April 15, 2019 at 8:42 am Leave a comment

Pangasinan literary works recognized anew


By Elsha Marie Soriano

LINGAYEN – Literary works of Pangasinan writers took center stage once more as the province’s best native language stories, poems and essays were recognized during the awarding ceremony of the 7th Kurit Panlunggaring  (Pangasinan Literary Contest) held at the Sison Auditorium here on April 5.

The Kurit Panlunggaring, which was the highlight of the commemorative program of the 439th Agew na Pangasinan (Pangasinan Day) celebration, is a poem, essay and short story writing contest launched by the provincial government of Pangasinan in 2012 to mark Pangasinan’s founding anniversary.

The conduct of the Pangasinan literary contest was aimed at enriching and developing the Pangasinan language by offering incentives to professional and aspiring as well as young local writers in Pangasinan.

This year’s winners with the title of their entries are as follows: Poetry Writing (Youth Division) – Ma. Rashel R. Torres (Nën Inmimis so Tawën, Akasulat ak na Anlong), champion; Louise Faye B. Calma (Maestra tan Arom ni ran Anlong), first runner-up; and Realyn Lee A. Nepascua  (Liwawa na Agëw ëd Datngën), second runner-up.

Essay Writing (Youth Division) – Realyn Lee A. Nepascua (Yaman na Kulturan Tawir Wala ed Kapoter na Kansiyon), champion; King Joshua Frias (Pangasinan Derlengen Ta ka), first runner-up; and Jemin A. Kim (Maaliguas Kulturan Pangasinan ed Ika-duamplon Siglo), second runner-up.

Poetry Writing (Adult Division) – James Dennis D. Tandoc (Edades), champion; Alex Romeo R. Fernandez (Balikas tan Palikdo), first runner-up; and Jahwella Q. Ocay (Pakanodnonotan na Imbeneg a Taon), second runner-up.

Children’s Story Writing (Adult Division) – Alma A. Nepascua (Say Alenleneg ta Nidumaduman si Idong), champion; Adrian C. Dela Cruz (Si Insiong Gilata), first runner-up; and Nicky A. Roque (Anghel Ya Bantay), second runner-up.

Shorty Story Writing (Adult Division) – Shane Carmie C. Sapera (Say Yegyeg tan Saray Kumpapey), champion; Mary Ann C. Macaranas (Onse), first runner-up; and Jayson D. Bustamante (Say Abugado nu Manangaro), second runner-up.

Aside from trophies, winners in the adult division brought home the following cash prizes: P15,000, P10,000 and P8,000 for short story writing and for children’s story writing; while P10,000, P8,000, and P3,000 were given to the top three winners in poetry writing.

For youth division, top three winners for the poetry writing were given cash prizes amounting to P5,000 for the champion, P3,000 for first runner-up, and P2,000 for second runner-up while top three winners for essay writing received P8,000, P5,000, and P3,000 respectively.

All first place winners this year are first time champions in their respective divisions and categories while nine out of the 14 winners are first time winners in the Kurit Panlunggaring. (PIA-Pangasinan)

(more…)

April 15, 2019 at 8:23 am Leave a comment


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